I predict, and this is my personal opinion, that Panasonic will announce the successor to the AG-AF100 at NAB 2012. This is an educated guess based on a few things: 1. if announced at NAB and released in the fall, it will have been roughly the same amount of time the HVX200A was available after the HVX200 was released; 2. stiff competition from the similarly priced Sony FS100; 3. though not in the same class, the Canon C300 and Sony F3 are favored over the AF100 due to the Panasonic’s inferior 8bit 4:2:0 25mbps sensor; 4. the AF100 ain’t exactly broke and so doesn’t need a lot of work; and 5. decreasing sales price and cash-saving incentives that expire March 31 (NAB is early April).
Point #1: the AF100 was released September 2010. I imagine an updated version would ship around two years later much like the HVX200/A difference of 2 years and 5 months (2 years 1 month for 60hz crowd)
Point #2: Sony attacked with the FS100: inferior build, design and control layout, but an exceptional image due to the same sensor technology found in the F3 but at roughly the same street price as the Panasonic
Point #3: those with the funds will gladly purchase a Canon C300, Sony F3 or even a RED Scarlet instead of three or four AF100s because of the Panasonic’s inferior signal, poor lowlight performance and highlight clipping
Point #4: Panasonic’s R&D needn’t do too much to compete with the rest of the crowd: 10bit 4:2:2 50mbps might just do the trick at ~$7,000 for an AF100 big brother (Canon XF305, anyone?), but to keep the same ~$5,000 price point, it might have to be around 8bit 4:2:0 35mbps (same as FS100). Still, I’d like to see an increase in dynamic range, sexier noise in lowlight and better highlight clipping. Even if 10bit 4:2:2 50mbps were possible with a $1,000 price increases, I’d pay it and so would alot of other people. We wouldn’t have to buy an Atamos Samurai for that $1,000…I’d rather give it to you, Panasonic, for the out-of-the-box solution. What I think sounds extremely reasonable is 10bit 4:2:0 50mbps with the same 4:2:2 SDI-out solution as before, but now with the added bonus of 10bits and 50mbps…all for ~$5,000 to keep up the competition with Sony.
Point #5: it just seems obvious…but, maybe too obvious…
I hope an AF100A, AF150, or whatever, is announced at NAB this year. I decided the Panasonic is the camera for me (shy of the expensive Canon C300…or an Arri Alexa while I’m dreaming) and if I need to wait till September-ish to grab the next, better version and it still costs ~$4900 then you bet I’ll be aiming at saving up for then (it might take that long, anyway). And if not, I’ll take the AF100 vanilla at whatever a new one costs at the time.
Why?
I like the Panasonic’s tonality, the noise is organic…the way it renders skin tones reminds me of Kodak film…and it doesn’t look down on me. Meanwhile, the Sony is a Sony and it’s a little too antiseptic…well, I don’t care for Nikon, either. Or Fuji film. Or drum solos.*
* Bonham/Moon/Peart not withstanding.



